针对运输路段交通事故概率未知的情况，提出同时考虑运输成本和风险的危险品运输网络选线模型，以降低危险品运输事故对沿线居民和周围环境的影响。考虑发生交通事故后有毒气体泄漏的二次事故，对事故后果进行量化，界定为气体覆盖范围内的受影响人数；考虑在实际运输过程中路段的复杂性，采用最短路径算法选取运输成本较低的若干条备选路径，对运输路网进行简化；假设事故由袭击方制造且运输方对多条路径进行组合使用，以运输风险最小为目标，建立基于零和博弈理论的复合选线模型；采用启发式算法对模型进行求解，获得运输方对各条备选路径的选择概率，构成复合选线策略。以上海市道路网液氯运输选线问题作为典型案例，验证复合选线模型的有效性，并将模型得到的复合选线策略与最优单一选线策略的结果进行对比分析。结果表明：复合选线策略的期望受影响人数为184人，而单选线策略的期望受影响人数为374人；复合选线模型能够很好地解决危险品运输路段概率未知的问题，并能很好地指导实际危险品运输，且在降低运输风险方面效果优于单一选线策略；最短路径算法的运用能有效限制运输路径的长度，有利于节约运输成本；启发式算法的运行时间较短，在适当控制备选路径数量的前提下，可以用于更大规模路网下的运输选线工作。
Abstract
On the condition that the traffic accident probabilities of transport road sections are unknown, a route-selection model is proposed by considering both transport cost and transport risk, aiming at reducing the impact of hazardous materials (HAZMATs) transport accidents on the nearby residents and surrounding environment. By considering the second accident caused by toxic gas leakage after a traffic accident, the accident consequence was quantified and defined as the affected number of people of diffusion coverage. In consideration of the complexity of roads in actual transport, a shortest-path algorithm was applied to select several alternative routes; therefore, the transport route network was simplified. Assuming that the accident was caused by an attacker and the transporter could use the combination of several routes, a compound route selection model based on the zero-sum game theory was built to minimize transport risk. The heuristic algorithm was applied to solve this model, thus the transport probabilities of each route chosen by the transporter could be obtained, which formed the compound route selection strategy. Considering liquid chlorine transportation in the Shanghai road network as a typical case, the compound route selection model was tested and verified. The strategy obtained from the model was then compared with the optimal single route selection strategy; the expected number of affected people of the former was 184, while that of the latter was 374. The results show that the compound route selection model can well solve the problem of unknown accident probabilities of HAZMAT transport road sections. The compound route selection strategy can well guide an actual HAZMAT transport and is better than the single route selection strategy for its much lower transport risk. The application of the shortest-path algorithm can well limit the transport route length and helps to save the transportation cost. The heuristic algorithm has a short running time; if the number of alternative routes is limited advisably, it can be used for much larger road networks.
关键词
交通工程 /
危险品运输选线 /
博弈论 /
风险评估 /
启发式算法
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
traffic engineering /
hazmat transport route selection /
game theory /
risk assessment /
heuristic algorithm
{{custom_keyword}} /
中图分类号：
U492.336
{{custom_clc.code}}
({{custom_clc.text}})
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 闫利勇,陈永光.危险化学品公路运输事故新特点及对策研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):65-70. YAN Li-yong, CHEN Yong-guang. Study on New Characteristics and the Countermeasures of Road Transportation Accident of Hazardous Chemicals[J]. Journal of Safety Science & Technology, 2010, 6(4):65-70.
[2] REVELLE C, COHON J, SHOBRYS D. Simultaneous Siting and Routing in the Disposal of Hazardous Wastes[J]. Transportation Science, 1991, 25(2):138-145.
[3] ERKUT E, VERTER V. Modeling of Transport Risk for Hazardous Materials[J]. Operations Research, 1998, 46(5):625-642.
[4] ALP E. Risk-based Transportation Planning Practice:Overall Methodology and a Case Example[J]. Information Systems & Operational Research, 1995, 33(1):4-19.
[5] ABKOWITZ M, LEPOFSKY M, CHENG P. Selecting Criteria for Designating Hazardous Materials Highway Routes[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1992(1333):30-35.
[6] ERKUT E, INGOLFSSON A. Catastrophe Avoidance Models for Hazardous Materials Route Planning[J]. Transportation Science, 2000, 34(2):165-179.
[7] GOPALAN R, KOLLURI K S, BATTA R, et al. Modeling Equity of Risk in the Transportation of Hazardous Materials[J]. Operations Research, 1990, 38(6):961-973.
[8] ZOGRAFOS K G, DAVIS C F. Multi-objective Programming Approach for Routing Hazardous Materials[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 1989, 115(6):661-673.
[9] HUANG B, CHEU R L, LIEW Y S. GIS and Genetic Algorithms for HAZMAT Route Planning with Security Considerations[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 2004, 18(8):769-787.
[10] KARA B Y, VERTER V. Designing a Road Network for Hazardous Materials Transport[J]. Transportation Science, 2004, 38(2):188-196.
[11] 宋伟程, 帅斌,陈钢铁.基于点危险源的危险品运输路径优化研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(2):116-121. SONG Wei-cheng, SHUAI Bin, CHEN Gang-tie. Dangerous Goods Transport Path Optimization Based on Point of Hazard[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2012, 22(2):116-121.
[12] 苏志东.重大事故后果分析模型与GIS的集成[J].安全与环境工程,2008,15(3):82-86. SU Zhi-dong. Integration of Major Accident Consequence Analysis Model and GIS[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2008, 15(3):82-86.
[13] KANG Y, BATTA R, KWON C. Value-at-risk Model for Hazardous Material Transportation[J]. Annals of Operations Research, 2014, 222(1):361-387.
[14] KANG Y, BATTA R, KWON C, et al. Generalized Route Planning Model for Hazardous Material Transportation with VaR and Equity Considerations[J]. Computers & Operations Research, 2014, 43:237-247.
[15] 任常兴,吴宗之.危险品道路运输选线问题分析[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(2):84-88. REN Chang-xing, WU Zong-zhi. On Route-choice Analysis of Hazardous Materials Transportation[J]. Journal of Safety & Environment, 2006, 6(2):84-88.
[16] BELL M G H. A Game Theory Approach to Measuring the Performance Reliability of Transport Networks[J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2000, 34(6):533-545.
[17] BELL M G. Mixed Routing Strategies for Hazardous Materials:Decision-making Under Complete Uncertainty[J]. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 2007, 1(2):133-142.
[18] SZETO W Y. Routing and Scheduling Hazardous Material Shipments:Nash Game Approach[J]. Transportmetrica B:Transport Dynamics, 2013, 1(3):237-260.
[19] SZETO W Y, FARAHANI R Z, SUMALEE A, et al. Link-based Multi-class Hazmat Routing-scheduling Problem:A Multiple Demon Approach[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2017,261:337-354.
[20] 胡小依,帅斌,种鹏云.危险品运输网络恐怖袭击风险定量研究[J].计算机应用研究,2014,31(6):1723-1726. HU Xiao-yi, SHUAI Bin, ZHONG Peng-yun. Hazardous Materials Transportation Network Risk Assessment of Terrorist Attack[J]. Application Research of Computers, 2014, 31(6):1723-1726.
[21] EPPSTEIN D. Finding the k Shortest Paths[J]. SIAM Journal on Computing, 1999, 28(2):652-673.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}
基金
国家自然科学基金项目（71671127）
{{custom_fund}}
{{custom_fund}}
PDF全文下载(3609 KB)
