Special Column on Green, Low-carbon, and Durable Asphalt Pavement Materials and Structures
LIU Jin-zhou, ZHANG Wen-xuan, WANG Yu-chen, LIU Qi, CAI Ming-mao, YU Bin
The volume expansion characteristics and water-damage risks of steel slag restrict its engineering applications as a potential substitute aggregate for asphalt pavements. To address the challenge of predicting the volume expansion and water stability of steel slag asphalt mixtures, this study established a machine-learning prediction model that incorporated multiple factors. Based on immersion expansion tests and 300 water stability tests covering variables-such as asphalt type, steel slag content, f-CaO content, gradation, and environmental conditions, a backpropagation neural network model was developed based on water-induced volume expansion and a CatBoost prediction model was optimized using Bayesian optimization and cross-validation. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) theory was employed to analyze the feature importance and parameter sensitivity that affect water stability. The results indicate that the volume expansion of the steel slag asphalt mixtures was significantly correlated with the gradation composition, f-CaO content, and immersion time. The CatBoost model achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the residual stability and tensile strength ratio (TSR) and effectively reflected the prediction error, with R2 >0.997 and MSE<0.344 5. Among the material factors influencing water stability, the f-CaO content of the steel slag coarse aggregate (mean SHAP values: 2.05, 1.21, 1.17, and 4.62, 1.44, and 0.77, respectively) was the most crucial, followed by the asphalt type (0.84 and 0.82), steel slag content (0.36 and 0.32), and asphalt content (0.12 and 0.38). There was an interactive effect between the feature combinations of steel slag f-CaO content-asphalt content and f-CaO content-steel slag content on water stability. To satisfy water stability requirements, the steel slag content in the surface layer of the asphalt pavement should not exceed 75%. Additionally, the f-CaO content thresholds for steel slag with particle sizes of 2.36, 4.75, and 9.5 mm should be controlled within 2.0%, 2.25%, and 2.0%, respectively. This study provides theoretical support for controlling steel slag expansion and predicting water stability, thereby promoting the resourceful utilization of steel slag in asphalt pavements.